A Quantitative Analysis on the Sentencing Disparity in Online Romance Scam Cases in United States: A Focal Concern Theory Perspective

Research on post-offending legal treatment of online romance scammers, including apprehended-offender characteristics, guideline application, and sentencing fairness, is scant. Focal concern theory has not been applied to U.S. cybercrime convictions, and U.S. romance-scam sentencing research is limited by few prosecuted cases and difficult access to legal documents. Public statistics also provide little information on apprehension and prosecution rates. The study further identifies missing ethnicity data and unclear case-level information on victim numbers and offender-specific losses.

The study quantitatively analyzed 148 U.S. federal sentencing memorandums for unique online romance-scam offenders (2016–2023), identified through DOJ searches and PACER Monitor records. It operationalized focal-concern variables (blameworthiness, community protection, practical constraints) and defendant demographics. Negative binomial regression modeled imprisonment length; binary logistic regression modeled non-imprisonment sanctions. A collinearity assessment found mean VIF=1.75.

Findings are correlational and may omit relevant influences. Restricted legal-document information prevented inclusion of attorney presence, court-level factors, judges’ attitudes, and more detailed defendant backgrounds. Defrauded-money values may not reliably reflect an individual offender’s losses because proceeds can result from collective activity. The sample was constrained to 148 available sentencing memorandums from 344 identified offenders; only 19 defendants received non-imprisonment sentences, and unusually large odds ratios may reflect small samples and group differences.

Use diverse methods to test observed sentencing associations: content-analyze sentencing transcripts, survey/interview judges, and qualitatively examine extensive records. Replicate with larger, more comprehensive datasets containing additional practical-constraint variables and detailed ethnicity data. Examine unmeasured factors and obtain direct judicial perspectives. Improve court investigations of victim counts and offender-specific losses; strengthen international police collaboration; and consider unified online-fraud legislation with clear definitions, penalties, and sentencing guidance.