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The effect of true crime docuseries on romance fraud reporting to the police

Grant, Stephany ; Buil-Gil, David (2025) — Crime Science

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DOI: 10.1186/s40163-025-00244-y (opens in a new tab)

Type:   Journal Article
Country:   United Kingdom
Tags:   Action Fraud, AI-Enabled Fraud, Crime Reporting, Docuseries, Help Seeking, Media Effects, Platform Policy, Prevention, Romance Scams, Time Series, Time Series Analysis, True Crime, United Kingdom, Victim Experience
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Synopsis

            
The study analyzed monthly UK data from April 2014 to January 2024. It combined Action Fraud romance-fraud reports, releases of five high-engagement TV portrayals, LexisNexis article counts, and UK Google Trends searches. GEE Poisson time-series models with AR(1) correlation estimated associations while controlling for trend, seasonality, and COVID-19 lockdowns; Negative Binomial models served as a sensitivity analysis. Dirty John, Love Fraud, and The Puppet Master were associated with statistically significant increases in reported romance fraud of 6%, 24%, and 9%, respectively. News article volume and Google search volume did not significantly moderate the association between docuseries and reported romance fraud. The design estimates temporal associations rather than demonstrating that viewing caused reporting.

          

        
                  

            
Identified Gaps

            
The study identifies limited evidence on the mechanisms through which media portrayals affect reporting. It also leaves unclear which program content or themes distinguish portrayals associated with increased reporting, and whether comparable effects occur for other crime types.

          

        
                  

            
Methods

            
The study analyzed monthly UK data from April 2014 to January 2024. It combined Action Fraud romance-fraud reports, releases of five high-engagement TV portrayals, LexisNexis article counts, and UK Google Trends searches. GEE Poisson time-series models with AR(1) correlation estimated associations while controlling for trend, seasonality, and COVID-19 lockdowns; Negative Binomial models served as a sensitivity analysis.

          

        
                  

            
Limitations

            
The design estimates temporal associations rather than demonstrating that viewing caused reporting. TV-program selection was restricted to releases with over 1,000 IMDb reviews, using reviews as a proxy for audience engagement because precise viewing figures were unavailable. The outcome captures reports to Action Fraud, not all victimization or reporting pathways. The authors also note that the explanation based on case outcomes is difficult to prove.

          

        
                  

            
Future Work

            
Test which specific messages or themes within TV programs increase reporting; assess whether true-crime docuseries on other crimes also increase reporting; and survey fraud victims to identify mechanisms linking media portrayals to reporting.

          

              

    
    

        
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