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Shifting routines and the industrialisation of scams: the impact of Covid-19 on deception crimes in Hong Kong

Akartuna, Eray Arda ; Yeung, Felix Sin Wai ; Manning, Matthew ; Bish, Alexandre (2025) — Trends in Organized Crime

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DOI: 10.1007/s12117-025-09557-5 (opens in a new tab)

Type:   Journal Article
Country:   Hong Kong
Tags:   Covid 19, Crime Displacement, Cross Cultural, Deception, Fraud, Hong Kong, Measurement, Pig Butchering, Risk Factors, Romance Scams, Routine Activity Theory, Victim Experience
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Synopsis

            
This study analyzes how the Covid-19 crisis affected deception-related crime in Hong Kong by examining a period from February 2020 to June 2023. The researchers apply an Auto ARIMA time series approach to contrast crime rates before the pandemic with those during it, linking changes to the timing of policy measures such as lockdowns, quarantines, travel restrictions, and financial stimulus programs. The aim is to isolate the relationship between policy regimes and deception activity, situating the analysis within the broader pattern of crime trends observed during disruptive events. Empirical results indicate that deception offenses rose during the pandemic and consistently exceeded the forecasted levels suggested by the ARIMA model for those months. Yet, in contrast to some contemporaneous findings, the study identifies a rise in deception rates during intervals when policy restrictions were eased, with particular emphasis on the relaxation of lockdowns and travel controls. The interpretation integrates routine activity theory and crime displacement theory to account for these dynamics, emphasizing how changes in daily routines among potential offenders and victims may shape opportunities for deception. The analysis draws on prior work to explain the observed trajectories, including shifts toward greater use of phones and social media that persisted into the post-pandemic period. The authors highlight the industrialization of deception, notably the rise of organized scam operations such as “pig butchering” conducted within dedicated compounds across Southeast Asia. These networks are described as engaging in labor trafficking, a process that becomes more feasible when travel and movement restrictions are eased, facilitating expansion and scale. The discussion frames the findings through the lenses of routine adaptability and resilience, arguing that disruptions prompt adjustments in offender and victim practices that have broader implications for crime risk. The study positions these insights as a theoretical contribution, offering a framework for assessing how disruptive events influence crime patterns beyond Hong Kong and extending to the evaluation of routine shifts and response strategies in the face of future crises.

          

        
                  

            
Identified Gaps

            
Existing Covid-19 deception research is largely Western-centric and focused on the pandemic’s early stages (2020–2021). A clear knowledge gap remains for the full pandemic period and non-Western contexts, including Asia. The study highlights the need to examine how Hong Kong’s unique zero-Covid policies and policy timing interact with evolving offender and victim routines, such as the rise of pig-butchering in Southeast Asia, to inform broader theories of routine adaptation and displacement.

          

        
                  

            
Methods

            
The study uses monthly deception-crime counts in Hong Kong and Auto ARIMA to compare pre-pandemic forecasts with observed pandemic rates. It tests pandemic months by policy contexts—social gathering restrictions, quarantine/isolation, financial stimulus, and travel controls—and interprets findings through Routine Activity Theory and crime displacement, noting shifts toward online deception and the industrialisation of scams (e.g., pig butchering).

          

        
                  

            
Limitations

            
Limitations include reliance on officially recorded deception data, which may undercount or misclassify cases; geographic focus on Hong Kong limiting cross-context generalizability; potential confounds from concurrent economic conditions and reporting changes; ARIMA assumptions and data quality over a long period; challenges disentangling overlapping policies and distinguishing online/offline dynamics beyond broad categories.

          

        
                  

            
Future Work

            
Future research could compare Hong Kong with other non-Western jurisdictions with differing Covid policies; extend the analysis into post-pandemic periods to test persistence of online deception; disaggregate scam types (romance, investment, pig-butchering) to map dynamic ecosystems; integrate qualitative offender/victim accounts; explore mechanisms (technology, social networks) that drive routine adaptation and resilience, and test alternative models beyond ARIMA.

          

              

    
    

        
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